THE GLAMOUR FOR REFENDRUM IS MORE WALKING IN ATIGHT ROPE - let Kenyans have their way- push for referendum is laughing stock paranoia

We witnessed the launch of Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) seeking national reconciliation and power-sharing. BBI was set up in the wake of the March 2018 rapprochement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and perennial opposition figure Raila Odinga, following the turbulent 2017-2018 election period. 

Critically, the recommendations of the BBI report suggest that Kenya might not have to hold what was expected to be a national referendum on constitutional change in 2020 June as suggested by the former premier Raila Odinga in recent Kisii rally but the question that remain is how possible would this be a true deal, the impacts, is the Nation ready for that long stretch walk and the way forward of the stability of the nation.

Article 255 (1) of the Kenyan Constitution, which outlines the criteria that would require a referendum to vote on potential constitutional amendments. Rather than a referendum, the amendments proposed could go through parliament under article 256 of the Constitution, thereby avoiding a disruptive and heated referendum in the middle of the electoral cycle. Kenya’s next general elections are scheduled for 2022. Without a referendum, political temperatures should be kept low although the rhetoric around the proposed reconfiguration of the political system will intensify.

After the launch of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) the narrative begins to take into another step which is way forward for the realization of inclusivity and general end to the peril that is witnessed in each electioneering period – a wanton worry that to be addressed as Kenyans indulge on the review of the BBI reports- with leaders up in their sleeve either throwing their weigh into the support or outrage against the drafts of the BB- Already factions emerge.

Raila, Uhuru lead allies juxtapose with Ruto brigades – we witnessed the harsh tantrums coming from the leaders whose interests either for parliamentary or referendum way in settling the equation of BBI.

The process towards a constitutional amendment is not as easy as assumed. As BBI is expected to start by going back to the people and raise a million signatures.

 This process will be followed by presenting the referendum questions to IEBC. Once IEBC ratifies this step, the questions will be sent to all the 47 county assemblies where it is expected that at least two thirds of the Assemblies will ratify them to allow the referendum Bill to be tabled in both Houses of Parliament, where at least two-thirds of members must ratify.

For the likes Raila pushing the Country into referendum by mid this year this is more of hijacking the wills of millions why? Today many of us have little understanding of the BBI drafts, we are duped into the wishes of the politicians – for long we have been under closet party, self-interest, greedy leaders where we lost the climax of democracy in our Country. It’s inept such mind set injected while the elephant in the room is not addressed – is the Wanjiku ready for the process? Are they well versed of what will they be agreeing or disagreeing once give to vote? 

According to proposals contained in the report; the President is to appoint an MP from the largest coalition or party as the Prime Minister, who will take up the position after approval by Parliament. 

However is a referendum way to go for us? I believe in flip-side of the actual motif of giving public the choice to say their will sometimes is overweight or taken guaranteed either in exploitation of favouring the interest of common groups, referendum actually undermine democracy by reducing complex issues to a simplistic choice that is capable of being manipulated by one side or the other through emotive campaigning tangential to the main question posed- it erodes own rights and ignited political crises, they all accomplished one thing.

Purely it demonstrates why many political scientists consider referendums messy and dangerous. When asked whether referendums were a good idea, Michael Marsh, a political scientist at Trinity College Dublin, said, “The simple answer is almost never.”
“I’ve watched many of these in Ireland, and they really range from the pointless to the dangerous,” he added.
Though such votes are portrayed as popular governance in its purest form, studies have found that they often subvert democracy rather than serve it. They tend to be volatile, turning not just on the merits of the decision but also on unrelated political swings or even, as may have happened in many nations.

In our Country whenever politicians purify themselves in defensive of our interest they smuggle for their endeavor rather than the will of the voters in fact on this crusade of BBI we must be the ones who should make decisions as urge by the president we must take time to read the drafts so as to not regret – leaders influence may cause hugely-
Voters must make their decisions with relatively little information, forcing them to rely on political messaging — which puts power in the hands of political elites rather than those of voters.

   This is a tool that’s risky, but politicians keep using it because they think that they’ll win,” said Alexandra Cirone, a fellow at the London School of Economics. But often they do not win, and instead of resolving political problems, the referendums create new ones. Looking over the research on these votes, it becomes clear why many experts are sceptical. ‘Short cuts’ to hard answers
Voters face a problem in any referendum: They need to distill difficult policy choices down to a simple yes or no, and predict the outcome of decisions so complex that even experts might spend years struggling to understand them.

Voters typically solve this problem by finding what the political scientists Arthur Lupia and Mathew D. McCubbins have termed “short cuts.” The voters follow the guidance of trusted authority figures or fit the choice within a familiar narrative – this means once the referendum goes through no turning back, for the June referendum in our Nation I see it as a palaver, thriller kind movie- Even the cost of funding such initiative cost heavenly forcing the taxpayers to deeper in their pockets already our economy is limping enough, with such huge step of urgently propose of voting for choice is absolute impracticable.

When a referendum is put forward by the government, people often vote in support if they like the leadership and vote in opposition if they dislike it, according to research by Lawrence LeDuc, a political scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Toronto.

A vote that is supposed to be about an important public issue ends up instead being about the popularity or unpopularity of a particular party or leader, the record of the government, or some set of issues or events that are not related to the subject of the referendum,” Professor LeDuc wrote in a 2015 paper .

Politicians or other powerful actors will often reframe the referendum into simplistic, straightforward narratives. The result is that votes become less about the actual policy question than about contests between abstract values, or between which narratives voters find more appealing-Masses opinion is compromised killing the rays of hope of democracy because always leaders upbeat for their wish, Wanjiku loses the target.

Too unfortunate we are chest-thumping for referendum as early July that has little contribute in our social fabric we already have a constitution that only needs short changes and can be literally be brought into the consensus or absolute majority representative –through parliaments

What is more, recourse to referendums inhibits difficult political decisions being made
Referendums based on knowledge, critical debate, real facts and understanding may be part of the answer to our inadequate democracy, along with other reforms.

The deepest problem we have in our first-past-the-post system is that government and parliament are usually of the same stripe. This leads either to absolute authority for one party or the sort of fragile, floundering government we have now. For an elected political party to form a government following a majority vote in an election is proper; what is improper is that power then vanishes from the electorate for years while parliamentarians squabble happily until the next election. If governments were elected and a reconstituted parliament composed of citizens drawn by lot from each constituency filled the Commons instead, party dominance would be broken.

The wisdom of crowds has been shown to better at problem-solving than the bickering experts. In our present system, long-serving elected members with whipped party loyalties generally do as they are told. A randomly selected citizen parliament, containing all parties or none, would be better able to hold the government to account, less open to political pressure and less vulnerable to lobbyists- in  nutshell by use power, privilege party line oriented merging the citizen plea is what for long politicians were using  just an example  see how  the referendum is packaged today. 

Democracies need to choose wise and intelligent people to respond to the opportunities and challenges faced by a community – but they need to protect themselves from foolish wheezes and demagogues - peoples will is ultimate choice but that can be demonstrated when given ample time for the citizen to understand the core matters that need to vote for- with billons needed for referendum it’s not right time to pressure to us on such big move. For the cohesiveness, tranquillity Kenyans must continue to talking of the BBI drafts – leaders should engage easy way of reviewing the contents and details of the draft.

Ireland has a combination of citizens’ forums and representative democracy. For instance, we should have an intensive citizens’ assembly to seek a better way of making a decision, of course referendum is inevitable if at all the forty million plus Kenyans accept the BBI draft and choose to vote, again it’s a process that signifies lots if we are set for, we cannot make a quick decision on glamouring referendum hysteria  – there must be a peculiar interest when the citizens are forced to do something that they have clue about, let the leaders quell down their urge for referendum –  we must know where the caravan leads.

Twitter: @WaWajir